A mathematical view of Chilubi by-election results

A mathematical  view of Chilubi by-election results


These are the results being announced by the PF Facebook page Smart Eagles.
It shows the PF with 70% with most votes counted, UPND with 20% and NDC with 5%.

In 2016 PF got 83% in Chilubi and UPND got 9.5%.

What these results are showing is that the PF has lost 13% percentage points in level of support in Chilubi.

This is a significant development and great news for the opposition, the PF may end up winning the seat but if they lose 13 percentage points across their strongholds it translates to losses of hundreds of thousands of votes for PF.

A 13% drop in support for PF in Northern circuit provinces would be enough to put an end to the Lungu presidency.

Had the opposition been allowed to campaign freely with no electoral malpractices, PF would have ended up at a much lower percentage down from the 83% in 2016.

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