A mathematical view of Chilubi by-election results

A mathematical  view of Chilubi by-election results


These are the results being announced by the PF Facebook page Smart Eagles.
It shows the PF with 70% with most votes counted, UPND with 20% and NDC with 5%.

In 2016 PF got 83% in Chilubi and UPND got 9.5%.

What these results are showing is that the PF has lost 13% percentage points in level of support in Chilubi.

This is a significant development and great news for the opposition, the PF may end up winning the seat but if they lose 13 percentage points across their strongholds it translates to losses of hundreds of thousands of votes for PF.

A 13% drop in support for PF in Northern circuit provinces would be enough to put an end to the Lungu presidency.

Had the opposition been allowed to campaign freely with no electoral malpractices, PF would have ended up at a much lower percentage down from the 83% in 2016.

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  • comment-avatar
    David N 1 week ago

    Let’s crunch the numbers! In 2016 the PF got 13,412 votes; the next candidate who stood as independent got 5387 votes; the UPND got 1243 votes. Fast forward 2020, the PF has got 16,553 votes; the UPND has got 4858 votes. This is on the backdrop of the fact that the UPND adopted the independent candidate from the 2016 elections. Meaning that they had a cast in concrete total to start with of 6630(1243+5387). Yes the playing field was not level but analytics should be factual. Maybe start with objectivity then probably readers will comment intelligently.

  • comment-avatar
    Alpha 2 weeks ago

    what about in Western province,were you also chased? when upnd won an election in northern province, you said you are entering pf strongholds. upnd,are leaving your strong holds to go to pf strongholds? Please educate me on your new winning strategy.

  • comment-avatar
    mwewa Joseph 2 weeks ago

    2021 it will be near-miss again for UPND,This is what I see from chilubi by election. 

  • comment-avatar
    Munene 2 weeks ago

    PF has scooped all the local government bye elections in western province…!!! Did police chase upnd in western province? Kaya…???!!!

  • comment-avatar
    Wanzelu 2 weeks ago

    I think relying on ECZ organised election to change things for the better in Zambia is just wishful thinking which should not be entertained by any sane Zambian.

    Zambians need to take to the streets and overpower these PF police and demand the resignation of Lungu and his foolish stooges.

    Only people power changes regime’s decisively.

    PF must seriously carryout an introspection before Zambians rise agains the regime.

    When fade up Zambia always rise to the challenge to get rid of corrupt idiots in Gov.

    PF ‘s days are numbered. 2021 is the year PF will buried whether they like it or not.

    PF and Lungu finito in 2021.

  • comment-avatar
    Sniper 2 weeks ago

    Every one celebrating with PF here is retarded. And from the look of things, most of you supporting PF are jobless people who can’t feel for your own suffering and how some of you are losing your wives because pf, yet you are busy celebrating. Your reasoning as well as my should be whether the country is developing or not? If pf is saying they have developed chilubi, why destributing bags of melie meal during campaign? Let’s learn from our friends in Australia, they don’t allow politicians to mess up, all they want is development must be seen. Tribes don’t bring development, it’s good ideas.

  • comment-avatar

    Victory is victory even by a single vote

  • comment-avatar
    alpha 2 weeks ago

    Upnd have to adopt the”do more and talk less”strategy if at all they’re form government in 50years to come. They talk too much but they don’t know how to capitalize on pf failures which they say pf has failed.

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    saimbwende 2 weeks ago

    this is a very simple and wishful analysis by desperate UPND. your analysis does not take into account factors like, weather, total number of voters, those that didnt vote and why.The facts on the ground are that despite economic challenges PF has maintained its supporter base in its strongholds whilst penetrating opposition strongholds. Zambian people can not easily be bought into HH’s politics of hate and tribalism. The man is a big pretender with a hidden agenda to promote TONGA ethnicity and not to serve zambian people. i personally i cant wait to see him lose again in 2021 for the sixth time.

  • comment-avatar
    mwenya milimo 2 weeks ago

    You had 27 days to campaign, but why wait for the last 5 days. You lack strategies and skills to beat PF in 2021 and form government. Campaign strategies are poor, and you concentrate on attacking ECL than providing solutions to challenges we are facing as a country. Looking at the way PF mobilized in Chilubi, they will overrun you in 2021. Looking at the figures. PF is still strong on the ground, and you strong on Facebook and Whatsup. By the way, any update from Western and North-Western Provinces.

  • comment-avatar
    Teddy Mayinga 2 weeks ago

    Well lets wait for 2021

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    adviser 2 weeks ago

    Was there a bye-election in Chilubi in 2016?

    • comment-avatar
      Charles 2 weeks ago

      Your basis of comparison is poor.Compare the performance in 2016 to that which the parties will score in 2021.By the way,it is reported that UPND has lost TWO of its wards in Western Province.Did Police prevent them from campaigning?

  • comment-avatar
    J Kalumbu 2 weeks ago

    I think the whole Zambia has been turned into a casino. You go and play foot, you chase the other entire team and you start scoring goes and then you celebrate. I’m so ashamed to be part of this country. Things that are so obvious to see but people still want to pretend.

    The right time for pf to gauge themselves is now by allowing free and fair elections otherwise they will be living in a fantasy world.

    This was a joke of an election. I’m surprised that the opposition even managed to get more than 4000.

    Don’t blame the people of Chilubi instead sympathise with them. There was a lot criminality. If I were the winner I would be ashamed to celebrate.

    • comment-avatar
      lindamwa 2 weeks ago

      Stupid senseless Zambians rejoice with thieves continue with all your comments and praises for PF mukalalya sand bastupid

  • comment-avatar
    Enenemwite 2 weeks ago

    Nothing to brag about, the playing field was NOT free and fair.
    Umwana wamushilo n’ganda no time boom so it’s point less to celebrate that child’s birth.

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    THE GM 2 weeks ago

    This was expected because instead of HH telling voters what him & UPND would do differently from PF’s way of governing he was just busy dancing & boasting that he isn’t lame and PF have failed,ELC has brought hunger in Chilubi blab la.Voters need to hear real issues pertaining their lives,clear policy & manifesto.He could have done better by highlighting PF failures & how he can better people’s lives.

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    True Zambian 2 weeks ago

    You just lost don’t make those fake mathematics, don’t you see that this is rain season and most people are busy farming? Of azaminyokolani even in 20121 a gain.

  • comment-avatar

    Congratulations Ba hh and the team for failing again “team failer” can you please take even the noise kambwili with

  • comment-avatar
    mwenya milimo 2 weeks ago

    figures don’t lie, are you saying you form government with the results we are receiving from Chilubi? When PF was in opposition, they used to beat MMD in their strong holds. But what we are seeing here is the opposite. UPND is popular on Facebook. To be honest with you, PF is still strong.

    In a year i visit 7/10 provinces, the outlook is changing and locals appreciate what the government is doing, you can easily see the development. PF have talking points, and will win in 2021. Edgar will humble you. Draft a manifesto and explain to the people what you intend to do when you form government.

    • comment-avatar
      CHINVINDINVINDI 2 weeks ago

      Last week the PF were saying they will win Chilubi by more than 90%. If they have 70% with following conditions:
      1. The ZP stopping Opposition parties from campaigns 2. The Electoral Commission allowing PF to bribe voters with food stuffs
      3. The Police allowing PF to carry offensive weapons
      4. The Electoral Commission allowing PF to donate relief food during campaigns.
      5. Allowing PF to have Exclusive areas for campaigns.
      It therefore follows that PF have failed and will fail at general elections in 2021.

      • comment-avatar

        Tapali ichenu ba upnd

      • comment-avatar
        katana 1 week ago

        How Ironic that pf leaders have been openly practicing politics of tribalism ,yet you turn around and musturbate that HH is practicing politics of hate and tribalism. Can you please give us a date HH or UPND publicly told the nation that no Bemba ,Bisa or Chews will never be president or Southern Province is the UPND bed room? When ideas have run out ,now it’s time to smear lies on innocent people.