A latest opinion poll (released only to the Post) conducted by a group of Zambian lecturers in conjunction with Canada’s Bradford University has revealed that Michael Sata’s Patriotic Front (PF) will win this year’s elections by 55 per cent.
And the opinion poll has also revealed that PF will win 87 parliamentary seats, MMD 34, UPND 22 and the rest to be shared by weaker political parties and independent candidates.
According to the opinion poll which was released by a group of 20 Zambian university lecturers headed by John Chishimba together with their counterparts in Canada at Bradford University, Sata is the most popular candidate and possible presidential winner of the September 20 elections.
Chishimba, who retired as purchasing and supplies manager from the Copperbelt University (CBU) and is now doing part-time lecturing, said Sata would get 2,750,000 out of the 5,053,366 total number of registered voters.
Chishimba, who is also a procurement consultant, said the predicted poll results from province to province indicated that PF would win the highest number of votes on the Copperbelt with more than 576,000, followed by Lusaka where Sata would win with 531,000 votes.
Chishimba said in Northern Province, Sata would get 400,000 votes, 287,000 in Luapula and 286,000 in Western Province. He said the opinion poll further showed that Sata would get 230,000 votes in Southern Province, 148,000 in North-Western and 181, 000 in Eastern Province.
Chishimba said in Central Province, Sata would get 108,000 votes.
He said the data for the study of the opinion poll were collected from the 150 constituencies in the country. He said the total population was 300,000 of 2,000 per constituency and non-governmental organisations (NGOs) operating in every area were used to collect data.
Chishimba said voters aged between 18 to 35 years accounted for 55 per cent, while those above 35 accounted for 45 per cent.
He said in terms of data collection methods, face-to-face interviews and questionnaires were used in obtaining information. For those who could not write and read, face-to-face interviews were used.
Chishimba said in the management of questionnaires, the likert scale was used and ranged from 1 to 5, with 5 being the most significant response.
He said a scale of 2 and 1 was used to rank two variable responses with two being the most significant except for the service of differentiating the age groups and education obtained by the respondents.
“Michael Sata will win the elections because he has become more popular among young voters than any of the presidential candidates, especially between the ages 19 and 35 years old countrywide. This age group accounts for 55.6 per cent of the total registered voters and those above 35 years accounted to 45 per cent,” Chishimba said.
He said the conviction of the electorate that prefer Sata was that he would bring order and reduce the high levels of corruption in the country once he takes over power.
Chishimba said the opinion poll had further predicted that PF would win 87 parliamentary seats out of the 150 constituencies, MMD would get 34, UPND 22 while independent candidates and unpopular opposition parties would compete for few seats.
Chishimba said it was likely that the MMD would not win any seat on the Copperbelt as the PF had become more popular than ever before and would scoop 21 seats out of the 22 seats.
He said only one parliamentary seat on the Copperbelt, which is Lufwanyama, was likely to go to the opposition UPND.
“The PF is much stronger in the Lambaland now and they have taken over the seats that had MMD parliamentarians such as Mpongwe, Masaiti and Kafulafuta.
These seats have gone to PF leaving the MMD with no seat on the Copperbelt,” Chishimba said.
He said in Northern Province, the PF would get 17 seats while the MMD would manage three seats and one seat was likely to go to an independent candidate.
He said the findings further revealed that in Lusaka, out of 12 seats the PF would get 11 while the MMD would get one seat. The opinion poll further indicated that in Luapula Province, PF would win 13 seats out of the 14 while the MMD would manage to get one seat.
Chishimba said in Southern Province, the UPND would lead at parliamentary level with 14 seats, the MMD would manage to get three and PF two seats.
He said in Western Province the PF would be on top with 10 seats, MMD three, while Charles Milupi’s Alliance for Democracy and Development (ADD) would get one seat and an independent candidate would manage to get one seat.
Chishimba said in Eastern Province the MMD would lead with 14 seats out of the total number of 19 constituencies, with the PF getting five seats.
He said in North Western Province, out of the total 12 parliamentary seats, it was likely that the UPND would get 6 seats, the PF would be second with 4 and the MMD would manage two seats.
Chishimba said the MMD was likely to lead in Central Province with seven seats, followed by PF with four and UPND managing three seats.
The 20 Zambian lecturers led by Chishimba are from CBU, UNZA and Evelyn Hone College. They conducted the poll from June 1 to September 6, before releasing results on September 10.
Published by the Post newspaper.