This document has been ‘poached’ from PF
A detailed analysis of the 2015 presidential by elections in which His Excellency Edgar Chagwa Lungu emerged winner by just over 1% calls for change in strategy for the 2016 general elections. Dynamics in a general election are very different. Eastern Province should be our main focus. Former President, Rupiah Banda was a major player in the 2015 by elections and his influence in Eastern Province is unquestionable. Eastern Province now has 20 constituencies. PF candidates could easily win all these 20 seats. This is very important. Our President, Edgar Lungu, being an Easterner is a major plus. The Zambian voter unfortunately can still be easily manipulated to vote on regional and tribal affiliation. The “Wako-ni-Wako” should be encouraged and maximized in Eastern Province. Our president has already found a way to exemplify this as demonstrated during the Petauke and Malambo parliamentary by-elections. History shows that only 30% of serving MPs return to Parliament after a general election. We need to energise the voters with new “blood”. There are 20 MP seats in Eastern province guaranteed for PF. There is also a very large electorate, which can be energised to win the presidential vote. Our strategy therefore will be centered on 3 key areas, Personnel, Resource Mobilisation and Incumbency.
Rupiah Banda as demonstrated in the 2015 by-election has through his network as a former head of state ability to raise money for campaigns from Nigeria and other countries. He also has experience in MP selections
Inonge Wina, unfortunately she has failed to galvanise the Western Province PF vote. Her age is also working against her.
Alexander Chikwanda, information on the ground indicates that he is a liability to PF. The public sees him as the one responsible for borrowing and accruing huge debt. He is a nominated MP and therefore easy to replace
Dora Siliya, her landslide victory in our region of focus (Eastern Province) even after switching political parties proves she is a force to reckon with and must be retained as further inducement to have former president Rupiah Banda stay with us.
Chishimba Kambwili: just like Alexander Chikwanda is a liability to the PF. The party should be seen to more progressive.
Harry Kalaba seems to have a following and could easily win his seat. However, there is need to monitor his activities. Kalaba just like Kambwili has presidential ambitions, which could destabilize PF.
Margaret Mwanakatwe is an asset. Her husband is CEO at Zamtel and this connection can be used as a conduit for more campaign funds
In summary, a committee to be headed by Mr. Rupiah Banda should approve all positions for MP candidates. The focus is to “sweep” Eastern Province 100% and get substantial numbers elsewhere to avoid a hung parliament. There is need to target incumbent MPs from the opposition who command a following in their respective constituencies. Victoria Kalima, Jonas Shakafuswa and Vincent Mwale are good examples.
Mr. Rupiah Banda should once again help with raising resources for the campaign. His contribution to the 2015 victory was crucial. He is in retirement and therefore, has all the time needed to spearhead this important function. The President, Mr Lungu and other prominent grouping such as the Umodzi Kumawa and businessmen sympathetic to PF will help Mr. Rupiah Banda with fundraising and resource allocation.
1. The PF is in control of everything. Dr.Ngosa Simbyakula should continue playing around the constitution reform process. The constitution in its current form favors our bid to retain power.
2. Ministry of Finance should from now till the elections next year ensure the Districts Administrators across the country are adequately funded. The DCs will be play an important role in campaigning for the PF presidential candidate
3. The Police will be instructed to be heavy handed when dealing with the opposition parties. The Public Order Act should be used to deny movement of the opposition party members to the extent possible
4. Public media should only carry negative stories about the opposition. ZNBC should repeatedly show PF developmental projects across the country
5. Increased surveillance of opposition leaders including recording of private phone conversations using state operatives
6. Use our cadres to perpetuate violence across the country and shield them from arrests and persecution.
7. Maximise on use of ZAF planes and choppers
8. Use our positions to ask for donations from business houses.