Economic Intelligence Unit Predictions on Zambian polls always false

Economic Intelligence Unit Predictions on Zambian polls always  false


*In 2011 they predicted that Rupiah Banda and MMD would win

* 2014  and 2015 they  foresaw opposition winning
*Now they are predicting the President Edgar Lungu will win 2021

SEE EIU 2011 prediction as covers by the Times of Zambia that time👇

The August report from the economic analysis organisation, which covers 185 countries, said President Banda’s victory remained the most likely outcome as he would benefit from the advantages of incumbency, the MMD’s formidable electoral machinery and recent maize bumper harvests.

“The elections will be closely contested but are slightly more likely to deliver a victory to the president, Rupiah Banda and the ruling MMD,” the report states.


The respected Economic Intelligence Unit has predicted that Hakainde Hichilema of the UPND will win the August 2016 general elections.
In its April 2016 Forecast Report just published on its website (, the EIU states that although the UPND will win, there will be little change in national economic policies as well as the social conditions of the people.

The EIU argues that the defection from the PF by its former Vice President Guy Scott “probably motivated more by his personal animosity towards President Edgar Lungu than by his disappointment with the party and that of Michael Sata’s nephew Miles Sampa, will help UPND win the elections.

The report states that the PF “is likely to be unseated without backing from more than Mr [Nevers] Mumba’s faction within the MMD. It is clear that the allegiances of the various MMD factions are fluid, a situation which in the coming months will see a lot of “horse-trading to secure electoral pacts.”

“The authorities’ official policy agenda, which is unlikely to change drastically in the event of a UPND election win, will be to reduce inflation, bring down the fiscal deficit, boost mining production, develop infrastructure (particularly power and transport) to encourage the diversification of the economy, and support local business and employment.”

The report further says that both the PF and the UPND have inconsistent economic policies where “pro-business rhetoric” is mixed with “promises of more populist policies.”

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