OP ‘B Branch’ First Quarter Intelligence Report puts Edgar Lungu second in the race to Plot 1

OP ‘B Branch’ First Quarter Intelligence Report puts Edgar Lungu second in the race to Plot 1

The ‘B Branch’ is the department under The Zambia Security Intelligence Service (ZSIS) (commonly called OP or Special Division) that handles current affairs related matters. Quarterly, the department releases intelligence reports that are directly submitted to the ZSIS Director General Mr Stephen Nkhoma who presents to President Edgar Lungu the report along with the other reports from key departments like C- Affairs of foreigners in Zambia, Q- Counter Espionage, and D- Internal Infrastructure state.

The Quarterly Intelligence Reports (QIR) summarizes key issues that formed intelligence from each field as summarized from the Daily Intelligence Reports (DIR) and Monthly Intelligence Reports (MIR) in a given quarter.

First Quarter ‘B Branch Report dated 22nd April, 2016 classified as Top Secret rates the United Party for National Development (UPND) President Mr Hakainde Hichilema as the front runner ahead of the August, 2016 polls at 54% with Edgar Lungu of the ruling Patriotic Front in second at 42% whilst Edith Nawakwi of the opposition FDD is in third with 3% and 1% shared among all other political parties.

The report states that Mr Hakainde Hichilema has gained significant support across the country and that if elections were to be held at this point he would outrightly win the elections. The report has further given reasons as to why Mr Hakainde Hichilema has gained so  much support whilst President Edgar Lungu is trialing.  The report also advises President Lungu on what he can do to catch up with his UPND counterpart ahead of the August, 2016 elections.

“The UPND under the Leadership of Mr Hakainde HICHILEMA has gained national presence. The party is the front runner in forthcoming election following many challenges that have rocked the ruling PF headed by His Excellency Mr Edgar Chagwa Lungu, President of the Republic of Zambia.”

In addition, the report goes further to list the factors that have made the UPND the front runner ahead of the August, 2016 election. “The UPND is the country’s fastest growing political party ahead of the forthcoming elections. The party’s growth is attributed to the following reasons among others;
#Mr HICHILEMA’s national appeal has improved since the 2015 elections. Mr HICHILEMA is no longer viewed to be heading a tribal party with regional strength.
#Mr HICHILEMA and his team have led a tireless campaign that has seen them penetrate the areas that were traditionally viewed as PF strongholds.
#The UPND’s continued receiving of new members and officials from the PF. The drifting away from the PF of Dr Guy Lindsay Scott, former Vice Republican Vice President  Hon. Sylvia MASEBO, PF Chongwe Member of Parliament, Hon. Keith MUKATA, Chilanga MMD Member of Parliament, Hon. Obvious Summerton MWALITETA, Kafue Member of Parliament, Mr. Robert SICHINGA, former Minister of Commerce, Hon. Gabriel Namulambe, PF Mpongwe Member of Parliament  and other former PF ardent supporters like Mr. Judge NGOMA, Mrs. Alice SIMANGO and Joseph AKAFUMBA among others has weakened the ruling PF.
#The continued weakening of PF structures in UPND strongholds which has been caused by defections of PF leaders in these areas to the UPND. The ruling PF’s organization in Western, Southern, North Western and Central Province is not any more as it was ahead of the 2011 elections.
#The  UPND’s continued establishment of party structures across the country including in PF strongholds. The UPND has atleast the presence of a constituency structure in each of the 156 gazetted constituencies whilst the PF had 122 constituency structures across the country.
#The intra-party squabbles in the MMD which has seen the UPND benefit more from the MMD’s disintegration. The MMD’s dominance was in the non-PF strongholds which with time have re-aligned themselves with the UPND and supporting the candidature of Mr Hakainde HICHILEMA . This is referenced with Western, North-Western and Central Province, formerly strongholds of the MMD.
#The labour factor in the Copperbelt and Kabwe. Following the loss of jobs on the Mines in the Copperbelt, there has been growing discontentment and subsequent loss of support for the PF with many electorates suggesting that the PF had failed to preside over the matter. The Copperbelt support has become divided and does not assure the ruling PF of a majority support anymore. This discontenment is also visible among Kabwe residents, another important PF geographical area where the UPND has penetrated deeply capitalizing on the highly poverty levels, unemployment and loss of jobs in the area.
#The PF’s failure to turn Eastern Province into its dominant stronghold. The PF has failed to use the incumbency of His Excellency Mr. Edgar Chagwa LUNGU, the President of the Republic of Zambia who hails from Eastern Province to turn the Province into a domin

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