Who wins the January 2015 Polls?

By a Correspondent

They say politics is about numbers and whoever gets the highest votes carries the day. If this is true, the starting point to analyze the current political battle for the republican presidency slated for January 20, 2015 could be the last general elections (2011) which Michael Sata won by getting 42% of the votes cast, Rupiah 38% and HH 17%. The others put together got a negligible 2.4% of the votes cast. Let me start by saying that if Edgar was Sata it would be plausible to think he may win again. But well Edgar is not Sata and Sata is not Edgar. Again if Sata was PF, would one say the same for Edgar that he is PF? Definitely no. Unfortunately Edgar has been handed big shoes to fit in and dragging himself across the country in these shoes is weighing heavily on the man. He has a lot to do to win the election. The only hope is that Sata’s charm and influence will rub on to the current campaign for the PF. But then while Sata took time, courage and tact to beat Bwezani, a lot has happened in three years! Some people have profited and some have not. Politics being a game of numbers means that those that have profited should be more than those that have not for a net gain for the PF. Yes Sata won but by how many votes? He beat Bwezani by guess what, only 183, 100 votes!

Now here is an attempt at projecting what the outcome of the 2015 election could be. Remember of the 5,167,154 registered voters only 2,732,662 (52%) voted. Of the votes cast, Rupiah got 987,866 (36%), Sata got 1,170,966 (42%) and HH got 503,803 (17%) meaning Sata beat Rupiah by only 183, 000 votes or 6 percentage points. However, Sata beat HH by a wide margin of 664, 000! or 24 percentage points.  Now is Edgar going to increase Sata’s tally or reduce it. The same for Rupiah is he going to gain or lose some votes. The most obvious is that assuming the same people vote, it is likely that both PF and MMD will lose some votes. Why do I assume so? Firstly there appears to be more wrongs, wrangles and unfulfilled promises by the PF in the last three years and most likely on a balance of probability, they are more likely to lose more votes than they will gain. The question is just how many? That should be the debate.

 As for the MMD, the current wrangles and the coming back of Rupiah does not seem to rime well with most people. This is not to say Nervous Mumba could have done better. But the current situation will make MMD lose a bigger number of votes they got compared to the PF. However, PF is likely to lose a third of their vote and MMD even half their vote! Whether we like HH or not UPND seems to have gained more voters in the recent past. The cardinal question is assuming the assumption that PF and MMD will lose some votes where will these votes go? Are they going to be spoilt or what? My take is that the votes PF and MMD will lose, not all but most of them will be the gains of UPND. Here are the numbers.

 

Assuming PF lost a third of their vote (the detail of where in the country they are likely to lose most votes is available on demand), they may reduce the 2011 tally from 1, 391, 058 to 780, 644 and if MMD lost half (they are likely to lose more) they will reduce their tally from 987,866 in 2011 to 493, 933! Now one would be tempted to say UPND will gain all the total of 884, 255 PF/MMD lost votes to take there tally to 1, 391, 058 but then this is wishful thinking and a bit stupid to say the least. The least assumption would be if they gained even half this “sangwapo” vote (884, 255) meaning they get about 442, 127 votes from both MMD and PF, this will bring their tally to 948,931 leaving there closest rival the PF to the 780, 644.  This will mean UPND may beat PF by 168,287 votes, apparently almost the same margin Sata beat Rupiah with. However, the above analysis may lack in one area fellow country men and women. Hope you have noticed that the story assumes UPND does not lose any voters from the 2011 voters. Well not a good assumption but the votes UPND has lost in the last three years may not be significant enough. So all in all, it is likely UPND may take the day imwe bantu!  Anyway, these are just thoughts really. If you don’t agree with the analysis, please extrapolate and give us numbers. Corrections to the assumptions and numbers above are welcome. Have a nice day!

 

The Correspondent.

Share this post
Skip to toolbar