Winners and Losers of the Zambia Presidential bye-Election: Part 1

As the dust is settling down following the bull fight particularly between PF and UPND, a number of winners and losers have emerged and more winners and losers will be announced tomorrow as Chagwa announces his cabinet. Here are our reflections following the post-election analysis:

Winners

Edgar Lungu himself: You can’t take away the fact that he is now president of Zambia. This is a man who doesn’t just look humble but is humble in wealth accumulation as well despite his profession as a lawyer as well as his age-at 59 and as a lawyer, there got to be more he should have been known for. Therefore, from being a professional lawyer who has nothing really to show for it, he now has an opportunity to amass wealth shared by the seemingly crooked people that have come to surround him. With RDA still at statehouse and with Nsanda allegedly having financially supported him before Rupiah Banda came on the scene, there is no way that he will turn against him other than asking for a cut from the proceeds of shoddy RDA contracts. The Zambian media should be alert here and in 2016 conduct a before and after of Lungus wealth.

Willie Nsanda: the next two years present him with more opportunities to finish what he started-managing and ransacking public funds through RDA contracts if Chishimba Kambwilis rantings are anything to go by.

Given Lubinda, Emmanuel Mwamba, Brian Hapunda and Antony Mukwita: Fired by Michael Sata, they are now assured of a piece of the national cake having strategically surrounded themselves with Edgar Lungu.

UPND: from 17% in 2011 to 47% in 2015, this is a tremendous achievement. Particularly that the PF as a sitting government have in the past three years implemented cosmetic infrastructural projects that were showcased during the campaigns and that despite Guy Scott giving a fake directive against the use of state machinery during campaigns, the abuse was there for all to see. HH and his supporters should not lose heart but go back to the drawing board. They may not believe this but Daniel Munkombwe cost them the election (see losers section).

GBM, Masebo, Mucheleka, Maureen Mwanawasa, Mutati, , Mangani, Kalima, Ngoma and other MMD MPs and members-these took huge risks despite knowing that the  parties they  supported (PF MMD or UPND) may lose the elections. They are winners because they stood on principle and what they believed particularly those that remained with Nevors Mumba (Kunda and Simabao) and those that “ditched” the ruling party to work with the opposition (GBM, Masebo). No one should make them believe that they miscalculated.

Tribalism and regionalism: Zambia is more divided now than ever before. Eastern province (except Sinda constituency) voted for their own. Rupiah Banda and Dora Siliya made it clear during their campaigns that the people of Eastern province have yet another chance to help put in state house one of their own. And yet Lungu is not a Nsengalised Nsenga but a Bembalised Nsenga. How many times did you hear him speak Nsenga? Even in Lusaka, he addressed his rallies in Bemba despite Lusaka being predominantly Nyanja speaking. Even Sata was forced to conduct his comics in Nyanja whenever he addressed Lusaka multitudes. Luapula, Northern, Muchinga and Central urban and Copperbelt Urban (which are Bembalised) only voted for Lungu because he surrounded himself with Bembas and belongs to a Bemba party. Above all this, the motive was simply to keep a Tonga-HH at bay.  Similarly, Southern province voted for their own to kick out what they felt is a Bemba tribal party whose government they refer to as “monkeys in a maize field.”

Western, North-western, Rural Copperbelt and Rural Central: since 1991, they have been consistent with their objectivity in voting. At no time can you accuse them of tribal politics. Despite coming from Central/Copperbelt provinces, Mwanawasa at one point shared votes in these provinces with Mazoka and Sata. Humphrey Mulemba of the National Party despite coming from North-western province was ignored in preference for Chiluba. Milupi despite being a Lozi came third or fourth to Rupiah Banda, HH and Michael Sata in the 2011 elections in Western province. All that these provinces want is to be ruled by someone who can deliver development. Congratulations to the peoples of these provinces

Losers

Electoral Commission of Zambia: despite the accolades received, ECZ messed up big time by their own admission. Voting went into day two. Despite this, ECZ didn’t know that they should only start transmitting results only after voting has ended and it had to take a political party (so embarrassing) to educate them on this. Their results and what their preferred results agent (ZNBC) transmitted were miles apart and with a classic of identical results being announced for various constituencies and right under their noses and no one at the ECZ noticed this and it had again to take a political party to point it out to them (so embarrassing again). People outside ECZ knew with amazing accuracy who had won the elections long before ECZ even had a clue (embarrassing again and ECZ was even advised by NGO boys to go digital). When told that UPND felt their vote was stolen, the Chairperson reacted that “then we stole together.” A very careless statement especially that there are so many criminal cases where one has been implicated in a crime he has no clue of. It might just have meant that the ECZ could have stolen votes while UPND was present but not knowing. The chairperson should just have said to the best of her knowledge, no votes had been stolen. ECZ also admitted that someone who didn’t even work for ECZ was spotted “near” their network server and had to be ejected from there. This one is still a mystery.

Rupiah Banda and Kenneth Kaunda: Edgar Lungu at one of his rallies promised that he will consult KK and RB whenever he got stuck. But then KK and RB are now established PF cadres. By openly supporting Michael Sata while insulting the opposition (during Labour Day commemorations, KK referred to the checks and balances by the opposition as “nyo nyo nyo nyo” big insult from Eastern province) he robbed Zambians of a statesman with the qualities to unite the nation. Similarly, RBs coming out of retirement to mess up MMD and Nevers Mumba not only helped in burying the MMD, but his support for the PF reduced his status from a potential statesman to a PF cadre. In short, Zambia simply has no statesman to run to. Unfortunate for RB, his corruption cases are still pending in court and we are now more than eager to see whether or not Edgar Lungu will influence the outcome as payback for the so-called support he received from Eastern province. Here is a newsflash! RB didn’t influence the east vote! They were still going to vote for Lungu as one of their own “Umodzi kumawa” and “wako ni wako” as well as the “tuchawa” genes embedded in the Easterners of “muzungu anikonde” also translated as “boma ni boma.” In 2011, RB won in Eastern, Central, North-western and Western provinces. If he was such an influence, how come he failed to influence the other three provinces? It won’t be long before he is discarded by the PF. Ask GBM, the man who single-handedly sponsored the PF and Sata during the 2008 presidential bye-elections. You can also ask Guy Scot (called a pig by his own cadres, Masebo, Kaseba, Mangani, Bashi Nono and other discarded elements of the PF. You trust the PF at your own peril! Good luck RB

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